Germany’s escalated U-boat campaign was meant to knock Britain out of the war by autumn this year. Although it has brought the USA into the war, Germany’s leaders believed this a price worth paying if Britain was eliminated. However the projections by Holtzendorff, the navy’s chief of staff, have proved hopelessly optimistic with regard to the level of shipping losses that would force Britain to sue for peace. It is clear that Britain will be fighting on for some time yet.
Holtzendorff appears also to have failed to reckon for more effective countermeasures by the Allies against the submarine menace. More ships trading with Britain are now sailing in convoys, protected against U-boats by Allied warships. British and American destroyers are also conducting more aggressive patrols against the submarines. These efforts, combined perhaps with the exhaustion of the U-boat crews, have led to a decline in tonnage lost to the U-boats. U-boat sinkings are now below the level Holtzendorff projected as being needed to force Britain to make peace. It has become apparent that the U-boat campaign has brought the USA into the war for nothing.
One novel method now being used to protect Allied merchant ships is camouflage. A ship is clearly too big to hide but ships are now being painted in strange patterns that are meant to make it difficult for an enemy to quickly work out its speed and direction, thus making them harder to target. This has become known as Dazzle camouflage. Whether Dazzle materially protects a ship from the attentions of a U-boat is unclear but these strange patterns inspire confidence in the men who sale in these Dazzle ships.
HMS Dalmatian (Flickr: misterworthington)
Dazzle ships in convoy, by Norman Wilkinson (Wikipedia: Dazzle camouflage)